I have been focused mostly during the past few weeks on ETHUSD which is stuck in a price channel. The post on the ETHUSD channel can be found here . However, I decided to look at ETCBTC, and it does present an interesting scenario.
It can be observed on the Daily tf that ETCBTC has formed a double bottom chart pattern with the bottoms forming on the Nov. 3, 2017 and Dec. 6, 2017 respectively. The pattern was confirmed on Fe. 12, 2018 with price closing above the higher peak (i.e. ~0.0031710) between the double bottoms.
The double bottom is a bullish chart pattern and calls for higher prices in ETCBTC.
However, from an Elliott wave perspective, a possible 3 wave (A-B-C) pattern that is an expanded flat (3-3-5) also appears to have been completed with wC = 161.8% wA at ~0.0039923 indicated by the horizontal green line on the chart. The implication of this is that a massive sell off in the price of ETCBTC is on the way that will see the price of ETCBTC move below the origin of the double bottoms (below ~0.0014005).
The possibility of a long position will only be if price attempts to break out above the high made on Feb. 14, 2018 at ~0.0040750 i.e. POE (Point of entry into a long position) which would indicate resumption of the current uptrend. In this case, the Target region for the price of ETCBTC is between ~0.0076342 and 0.0081858. Using a price move below 0.0030295 as stop loss and buying on the breakout above 0.0040750, risk on the trade = 0.0010455.
Reward = 0.0076342(bottom of the target region) – 0.0040750 = 0.0035592.
Risk/Reward ratio = ~3.4:1
The strategy for taking a long position as described above ensures that one can avoid trying to pick the bottom in other to get into the trade.
POI = Point of invalidation (indicated by the red horizontal line)= should price close below the low of ~0.0026754 on Feb. 11, 2018, it possibly increases the likelihood of ETCBTC selling off.