The 4 hour timeframe of the AUDJPY as shown in this analysis captures the downtrend that has been active since January of this year.
However, price action from March 13, 2018 till present date has remained in a side trend with the most recent close outside the range occurring in the week of August 13, 2018 and current week.
Movement of price action from downtrend to a side trend, especially one that has lasted for over 4 months is an indicator of a possible change in sentiment in the AUDJPY, and hence a major catalyst for the next trend.
Long (buy) trade strategies for the AUDJPY involve waiting to see if price closes above 80.637 (lower boundary of the sideway range), which in this case would indicate a false breakout. Long positions would be exited at or close to the upper range of the sideways channel (i.e. 84.202).
The width of the channel is also indicated by the black arrow can also be used to project a possible termination point of bullish momentum in case price breaks out strongly above 84.202.
Lack of movement back into the channel and price closing below ~79.523 implies more selling of the AUDJPY.
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