Bitcoin, the world’s number 1 cryptocurrency closed at ~$19,210 on Dec. 16, 2018 and has been in a downtrend ever since. Price close on Dec. 16,2018 has been identified as the termination point of Primary wave ((3)) and the current downtrend or correction is Primary wave ((4)). Based on guidelines, it is quite possible for Primary wave ((4)) of Bitcoin to terminate in the region of the 4th wave of the previous degree i.e. Primary wave ((3)), which this analysis identifies as the region of $4,367
The correction from $19,210 has been identified as a possible wedge (leading diagonal). If this holds true, then the entire correction can be anticipated to be an Elliot wave zigzag (5-3-5) structure. Currently, price action appears to be completing in a Minute ((1)) of Minor wave 5. Completion of Minor wave 5 should see Bitcoin close below at least $6,946.60 (price close on Feb. 5, 2018).
Any bullish momentum from a close of Minor wave 5 should see price possibly terminate in the region of Minor wave 4 which is approximately $11,433.50.
For those interested in my earlier post concerning EthereumUSD in a bear channel and projections, the post can be found here.
The chart above shows an Elliott wave analysis for EthereumUSD. Price close of $672.10 on the 4hr tf has been identified as a possible Minute wave ((i)) position. It is possible that minute wave ((ii)) is not yet complete which is why I have put a question mark next to it. The implication of the above is that once minute wave ((ii)) is complete, ETHUSD should resume selling off in what would be minute wave ((iii)).
Target for the sell off could be a projection of minute wave ((iii)) = 161.8% minute wave ((i)). However I have not calculated this because it is possible that minute wave ((ii)) is not yet complete.
POI = Point of invalidation at which the analysis requires revision
The price swing for Ethereum classic (ETCUSD) from a price low of $14.00 (Feb. 6, 2018) to a high of $42.85 (Feb. 20, 2018) has been identified as a 3 wave zigzag Elliott wave structure. This corrective move is part of the sell off that began on Feb. 14, 2018 at ~$45.30.
The implication of the above is that the entire structure when complete should be a regular flat and the minimum target for the end of the move is $14.00. ETCUSD is currently in the last leg of the regular flat (an intermediate wave Y), where it appears to be tracing a 5 wave move.
Minor wave 3 is possibly not yet complete and still requires a wave ((iv)) and wave ((v)) after which Minor w 4 is expected to resume which could possibly also terminate in the region of the 4th wave of the previous degree i.e. w((iv)) of Minor wave 3.
Minor wave 5 is then expected to complete downwards. The arrows on the chart are used to show the possible trajectory for ETCUSD.
Using the price projection for a regular flat, other possible termination points for Minor wave 5 are $10 and $4 before a bullish move can be sustained.
The other alternative scenario to the analysis above is that is quite possible that ETCUSD completed a 5 wave move from price low of $14.00 (Feb. 6, 2018) to a high of $42.85 (Feb. 20, 2018). This 5 wave move is most visible on the Daily tf of ETCUSD (not shown here). The implication of this is that ETCUSD will complete a zigzag move upwards and price should at least target the previous high of ~$42.85 of Feb. 20, 2018.
Target area as shown on the chart is between $28.49 and $27.05. For this analysis to be valid, the POI (point of invalidation) = $32
P.S.The use of a “price swing” in the comments above is used by the author to indicate the overall movement in price in a particular direction.”Price swing” as used above connects a price low to a price high or vice versa. It does not imply or is the same thing as an Elliot wave structure.
XRPUSD’s correction after making a high of ~$3.16 on Jan. 4, 2018 (Ripple) can be described as a double zigzag Elliott wave structure (A-B-C-X-A-B-C). Price action is currently in a minor wave C position (last leg of the correction that is not yet complete).
The implication of the above is that XRPUSD should continue to sell off. Weekly and Daily tf (not shown on this chart) support are present at ~ between $0.57 and $0.41 so perhaps a great probability that XRPUSD will target this support region.
Support as drawn on this 4hr tf chart is present between $0.66 and $0.75 which should be broken as part of the process of completing minor wave C position before any bullish move can be sustained.
This analysis will be subject to revision should XRPUSD close first above $0.98 (POI) before reaching the target area ($0.57 and $0.41).
POI = Point of invalidation at which this analysis will be reviewed.
I have updated and used the Elliott wave principle in this post to model the price action of LTCUSD. Chart patterns for LTCUSD annotated and the comments I gave can be found here.
Currently, LTCUSD is shaping up as a double zigzag Elliott wave structure (A-B-C-X-A-B-C). The implication of this is that the minimum target for LTCUSD is the price low of ~$106.52 made on Feb. 6,2018.
I have also indicated a possible entry point on the chart as I expect a quick bounce to the $201 area after which price should continue downwards.
POI = (Point of invalidation) i.e. I do not want to see price of LTCUSD close above ~$214. Price close above $214 would warrant a review of this analysis.
Using the ideal scenario above gives a risk of ~ $13 (i.e. $214 – $201)
Using the low of Feb. 6, 2018 as target for profit, reward= $201 – 106 = $95
Risk/reward ratio= $95/$13 = ~7.3:1