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XAUUSD should continue to sell off: Short tf (4hr) analysis

Price action for GOLD (XAUUSD) terminated a Primary wave i.e. wave ((C)) at the close on Jan 25, 2018. Price swing from this pivot ~$1365.95 on Jan 25, 2018 up to a low of ~$1309.59 on March 1, 2018 can be observed to have completed a 3 wave move best described by a regular flat Elliott wave structure.

It appears that XAUUSD is currently completing a minor wave B position after which a minor wave C should see price return to the target area marked on the chart. Target area is between ~$1348.05 and $1343.38.

GOLD for week of March 18

Completion of minor wave C will also complete at intermediate wave (X), which implies that XAUUSD should sell off and return to at least the low of March 1 2018 at ~$1309.59.

If XAUUSD holds in the target area, the entire move from Jan. 25, 2018 is therefore going to shape up as a WXY move.

Projections that can be used to take profit = the termination point of a wave Y based on a wave W are the following:

wave Y = 161.8% wave W or

wave Y = 100%wave W (this is more conservative)

POI = Point of invalidation for the 4hr tf analysis i.e. Price closing above 1359.58

P.S. Price swing as used by the author is to describe the overall trend in price. It does not equate to an Elliott wave move or structure.

Analysis was carried out using OANDA FX’s data, so prices quoted above might defer slightly depending on your broker.

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Possible upside potential for Lisk (LSKBTC): 4hr tf analysis

The 4hr tf downtrend in Lisk (LSKBTC) from Feb. 10 2018 to March 15 2018 has been identified as the termination of intermediate wave (A) with 3 minor subwaves W-X-Y. Price has currently broken above the latest downtrend line which is also the top of the of the wedge (ending diagonal) for the minor wave Y position.


The current set up offers a risk to reward of ~3:3 if 0.00167814 is used as the point of entry into the trade with position closed when the market reaches the bottom of the target area (0.00271562)

Target area is between 0.00271562 and 0.00288088

POI (point of invalidation) at which point the trade will be exited is a price close below 0.00136139



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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) bears rule

Bitcoin, the world’s number 1 cryptocurrency closed at ~$19,210 on Dec. 16, 2018 and has been in a downtrend ever since. Price close on Dec. 16,2018 has been identified as the termination point of Primary wave ((3)) and the current downtrend or correction is Primary wave ((4)). Based on guidelines, it is quite possible for Primary wave ((4)) of Bitcoin to terminate in the region of the 4th wave of the previous degree i.e. Primary wave ((3)), which this analysis identifies as the region of $4,367


The correction from $19,210 has been identified as a possible wedge (leading diagonal). If this holds true, then the entire correction can be anticipated to be an Elliot wave zigzag (5-3-5) structure. Currently, price action appears to be completing in a Minute ((1)) of Minor wave 5. Completion of Minor wave 5 should see Bitcoin close below at least $6,946.60 (price close on Feb. 5, 2018).

Any bullish momentum from a close of Minor wave 5 should see price possibly terminate in the region of Minor wave 4 which is approximately  $11,433.50.




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ETHUSD bears in charge: Short tf (4hr) analysis

For those interested in my earlier post concerning EthereumUSD in a bear channel and projections, the post can be found here.

Ethereum 4hr analysis

The chart above shows an Elliott wave analysis for EthereumUSD. Price close of $672.10 on the 4hr tf has been identified as a possible Minute wave ((i)) position. It is possible that minute wave ((ii)) is not yet complete which is why I have put a question mark next to it. The implication of the above is that once minute wave ((ii)) is complete, ETHUSD should resume selling off in what would be minute wave ((iii)).

Target for the sell off could be a projection of minute wave ((iii)) = 161.8% minute wave ((i)). However I have not calculated this because it is possible that minute wave ((ii)) is not yet complete.

POI = Point of invalidation at which the analysis requires revision


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Ethereum classic (ETCUSD) requires patience: Short (4hr) tf analysis

The price swing for Ethereum classic (ETCUSD) from a price low of $14.00 (Feb. 6, 2018) to a high of $42.85 (Feb. 20, 2018) has been identified as a 3 wave zigzag Elliott wave structure. This corrective move is part of the sell off that began on Feb. 14, 2018 at ~$45.30.

The implication of the above is that the entire structure when complete should be a regular flat and the minimum target for the end of the move is $14.00. ETCUSD is currently in the last leg of the regular flat (an intermediate wave Y), where it appears to be tracing a 5 wave move.

Minor wave 3 is possibly not yet complete and still requires a wave ((iv)) and wave ((v)) after which Minor w 4 is expected to resume which could possibly also terminate in the region of the 4th wave of the previous degree i.e. w((iv)) of Minor wave 3.


Minor wave 5 is then expected to complete downwards. The arrows on the chart are used to show the possible trajectory for ETCUSD.

Using the price projection for a regular flat, other possible termination points for Minor wave 5 are $10 and $4 before a bullish move can be sustained.

The other alternative scenario to the analysis above is that is quite possible that ETCUSD completed a 5 wave move from price low of $14.00 (Feb. 6, 2018) to a high of $42.85 (Feb. 20, 2018). This 5 wave move is most visible on the Daily tf of ETCUSD (not shown here). The implication of this is that ETCUSD will complete a zigzag move upwards and price should at least target the previous high of ~$42.85 of Feb. 20, 2018.

Target area as shown on the chart is between $28.49 and $27.05. For this analysis to be valid, the POI (point of invalidation) = $32

P.S.The use of a “price swing” in the comments above is used by the author to indicate the overall movement in price in a particular direction.”Price swing” as used above connects a price low to a price high or vice versa. It does not imply or is the same thing as an Elliot wave structure.