The 4hr tf chart of XAUUSD (Gold) shows that price has been meandering ever since Gold made a high of ~$1,365.95 on January 25, 2018.
The chart pattern that best describes the meandering price action of XAUUSD (Gold) since January 25, 2018 is a descending triangle. This chart pattern ideally has bearish implications, but not all the time. This implies that a breakout upwards for XAUUSD is also possible.
In either case, a downward breakout outside this descending triangle can see price of XAUUSD reach ~$1,247.95. This is calculated based on a downward projection of the width of the chart pattern and subtracting it from the breakout point (breakout in this case is ~$1306.95)
Width of the descending triangle is shown by the light blue line and is calculated by taking the difference between the high and low of price (i.e. $1,365.95 – $1,306.95 = $59)
In the case of an upside breakout, the width of the descending triangle ($59) can be added to the breakout point above the triangle. In this analysis, I used the breakout price of ~$1357.73.
Projection of termination of XAUUSD for a breakout above the triangle therefore = $59 + $1357.73 = $1,416.73
P.S. Analysis was carried out using FXCM’s data so projections may vary slightly depending on your broker.
XAUUSD (Gold) analysis carried out last week can be found here:
In the analysis last week, an intermediate wave (Y) was anticipated that would see XAUUSD (Gold) continue its bullish trend. This is not what transpired based on market close for last week. XAUUSD instead sold off after reaching ~ $1356.66.
The current analysis shows a bearish scenario for XAUUSD with the major target region expected between ~$1334 and $1338. A corrective (3wave) move back to this target region means that the downtrend should continue and the least target for the sell off would be ~$1310.23. The point of invalidation for the bearish scenario is ~$1,346.97
In the event that XAUUSD pushes well past ~$1,338, it is likely that it will resume its bullish trend. In this case, the safest point to go long would be a breakout above its most recent high ($1,356.66). Conservative projections in this scenario give a possibility of Gold reaching ~$1,395.51 and higher projections (based on intermediate wave W and intermediate wave X) give targets into the $1,500’s for XAUUSD.
Litecoin’s (LTCUSD) should continue its bearish trend and any bullish momentum will not be sustained. Progression of the bearish trend based on Elliott wave analysis indicates the termination of a minor wave B at ~ $173.09.
A minute wave ((iii)) position of minor wave C appears to have terminated. If this is so, minute wave ((iv)) is next and is anticipated to terminate within the target area indicated on the chart i.e. between the 38.2% (~$137.13 )and 50% (~$143.71) retracement of minute wave ((iii)).
Another round of sell off should follow the termination of minute wave ((iv)). Projection for the end of the sell off is ~$52.26
Point of invalidation (POI) for this analysis = ~$152.77, just above 61.8% retracement of minute wave ((iii)) by minute wave ((iv))
The downtrend in price of Monero (XMRUSD) from ~$373.69 on March 5,2018 to ~$186.32 on March 18, 2018 is identified in this analysis as a minor wave A position. Monero is therefore currently in a Minor wave B position that has not terminated yet.
The target area ($242.89 and $254.38) marked on the chart indicates the potential region of termination of Minor wave B. Minor wave C is expected to move downwards from the target area to complete a 3 wave (zigzag) Elliott wave structure.
The implies lower prices for Monero (XMRUSD). The least projection for the termination point of minor wave C is ~ $163.97, with $52.87 also a possibility for minor wave C to terminate.
Point of invalidation (POI) of this analysis (not shown in this chart) is Monero closing below ~$149.93 instead of going back to the target area indicated on the chart.
Price swing currently from the end of minor wave 3 (in red) up to ~$20.79 has been identified as a minor wave 4 position.
Ethereum classic based on this analysis is therefore in a minor wave 5 position. The implication of this is for Ethereum classic to close lower than $14.51 (the termination point of minor wave 3) before any bullish move can be sustained.
Point of invalidation (POI) for this analysis is a price close above minute wave ((ii)) of minor wave 5 i.e. $19.32, before Ethereum classic closes below $14.51.